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FEBRUARY 11,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

THE DEBATE – Hillary and Bernie debated this evening, and what was stunning was how far to the left the Democratic Party has drifted.  The prevailing "narrative" is that Obama isn't left-wing enough, nor racial enough.  The attacks on the police were extraordinary.  Both candidates vied for the title of "progressive of the year."  At times they were speaking only to African-Americans, who are now the swing vote within the Democratic Party.  You would never think the country was under threat of another terrorist attack, or that criminals were dangerous people.  I felt I was drifting back to the 1960s, where criminals were described by the liberal establishment as victims of social injustice.  This is dangerous stuff, especially because so many young people buy into it.  Hillary is depending on the black vote to save her in South Carolina.  But if Bernie can penetrate that vote, I don't see where Hillary can do.

SOFT GLOVES – We're beginning to see the Obamization of Bernie Sanders.  That is, he is rapidly becoming the anointed candidate of the establishment liberal press.  The guy's got more baggage than American Airlines, and Hillary's e-mail errors pale in comparison to Bernie's utter contempt for national security.  And yet, find me a tough question he's been asked.  This is a man who honeymooned in the Soviet Union and opposed the very policies that allowed us to win the Cold War without fighting a Third World War.  Anybody care?  We're told Americans are tired of being pushed around in the world, under Obama, but many Dems want to nominate a man who wants even more pushing.  It's hard to believe that Sanders, the keeper of the hammer and sickle, could actually be elected.  But we didn't believe an experienced black kid from Chicago could be elected either.  I say we should raise the voting age to 40.  Then we can get some maturity into the process.  Make that 50.

SOUTH CAROLINA – A new poll shows Trump with 32%, Cruz with 26%, Rubio with 20%, and Bush with 10%.  The voting is a week from Saturday.  If those numbers are accurate, and they hold, South Carolina would show that the race is still wide open.  Trump is showing no real progress.  He's stuck in the low 30s.  Cruz and Rubio together, splitting the anti-Trump vote, have 46%.  If Bush can't improve his 10% number, he might consider getting out of the race.  However, his rage against his onetime protégé, Marco Rubio, is genuine, and that might keep him in.  I don't see Kasich or Carson as serious factors.  More and more, as we have reported, insiders are talking up the idea of an open convention, where no one arrives with enough votes to secure the nomination.  Such fun.  Such intrigue.  What a movie.

February 11, 2016      Permalink 

MARCO, WHERE YOU GOIN',  MARCO?  – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  A week ago he was golden boy, the great hope of a Republican Party wary of Donald Trump.  Today he's the guy who blew a debate big time, and looks like a kid whose prom date cancelled at the last minute.

Where does Marco Rubio go?  He is articulate, young and dynamic, and one of his party's best spokesmen on foreign affairs.  He usually has the lowest polling negatives of any major candidate.  But his finish, back in the pack, in New Hampshire, was a severe punch.  It isn't going to be an easy ride from now on. 

But...remember that "open convention" we suggested earlier?  That seems part of the Rubio strategy.  From AP: 

BLUFFTON, S.C. (AP) -- The best hope of the Republican establishment just a week ago, Marco Rubio suddenly faces a path to his party's presidential nomination that could require a brokered national convention.

That's according to Rubio's campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, who told The Associated Press that this week's disappointing performance in New Hampshire will extend the Republican nomination fight for another three months, if not longer. It's a worst-case scenario for Rubio and many Republican officials alike who hoped to avoid a prolonged and painful nomination fight in 2016.

"We very easily could be looking at May - or the convention," Sullivan said aboard Rubio's charter jet from New Hampshire to South Carolina on Wednesday. "I would be surprised if it's not May or the convention."

The public embrace of a possible brokered convention marks a sharp shift in rhetoric from Rubio's top adviser that could be designed to raise alarm bells among Republican officials. Yet days after a disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire and looking up at Donald Trump in next-up South Carolina, Rubio's presidential ambitions are truly facing growing odds.

While he downplayed his dilemma on his first day in South Carolina after the New Hampshire setback, the first-term Florida senator discussed his political challenges at length during an unusual 45-minute question-and-answer session with reporters aboard his campaign plane on Wednesday. He answered questions until there weren't any more, noting afterward that he hadn't held a session that long with reporters since his days as Florida's House speaker.

In remarks that were at times personal and others defiant, he also may have simply needed to talk it out to help process his predicament. It also seemed he needed to prove to the political world, himself and his family that he could face the biggest test of his young presidential bid.

COMMENT:  Nothing is permanent here.  Remember Iowa?  Didn't they hold caucuses just last week?  I think so.  Today no one in politics remembers where Iowa is.  It is day by day in this election year.

As I write this, the Congressional Black Caucus is about to announce its endorsement of Hillary Clinton, which should be of substantial help to Clinton in South Carolina, where Dems vote on February 27th.  Clinton is looking to break Bernie's momentum, and South Carolina, with its large black vote, is the place to do it.

February 11, 2016      Permalink

THE PRICE OF GOLD – AT 9:55 A.M. ET:  Always an interesting economic indicator.  There may be a new gold rush on.  From Reuters:   

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold surged nearly 4 percent on Thursday to its highest in a year as fears about financial instability, a lower dollar and U.S. Treasury yields persuaded investors to seek refuge in the precious metal.

Traders said financial instability fears were fuelled by European bank shares slumping to multi-year lows, with concerns mounting over banks' profitability in a low-growth and low-interest rate environment.

Spot gold jumped as much as 3.6 percent to $1,240.90 an ounce, its highest since February 2015, and was up 3 percent at $1,233.70 at 1254 GMT. It is on track for its biggest daily rise since Dec. 1, 2014.

"We have a good explanation for gold's rally; it is to do with worries about the U.S. economy and the rest of the world," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said.

COMMENT:  The president of the United States seems uninterested.  He just wants to get through the next 11 months without this country winning anywhere.  Hillary Clinton is busy proving she's a progressive.  And Bernie Sanders wouldn't touch gold because he once saw an oil company CEO wear some. 

But one can sense the growing economic fears.  And remember, an economic train wreck occurred six weeks before the 2008 election, helping Obama get elected. 

February 11, 2016       Permalink

THE CAMPAIGN – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:  I went into the Socialist Republic of Manhattan yesterday to hear an off-the-record talk by a former U.S. senator who really knows the political ropes. 

His assessment is that we're at the beginning of this campaign, and I agree.  Almost anything can happen from now on.  Consider:  On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton can become the underdog if Bernie keeps denting her numbers.   And/or, Hillary can be crushed by the FBI probe.  In that case, would Bernie be nominated?  Probably not.  Obama would want Biden, and Biden could step in, choose Elizabeth Warren early as his V.P. choice to pacify the "progressives," and steal Bernie's thunder.

Or, Hillary's minority-group firewall could hold, and Bernie could become an asterisk.

On the GOP side, Trump could win primary after primary and still not get the nomination because he's only polling in the low thirties.  Not enough to win.  Jeb, who is well financed, can run all the way to the convention.  Ted Cruz, a conservative favorite, could do the same.  You could literally have an open convention.  After a certain number of convention ballots, delegates are free to go anywhere. 

Or...former Mayor Mike Bloomberg of New York could get in.  No fundraisers needed.  Heavy campaigning experience.  As we've noted, he could, early on, poll at 20%, meaning he's the kingmaker, able to take more votes from one side than the other.

Or...another candidate can get in.  Do not underestimate John Kerry.  He ran for president in 2004 and almost won.  Family has lots of money from his wife's ketchup fortune (Heinz).  The Dems might see him as safe.  Yes, he's a constant screw-up, but a friendly media can deal with that.

Or...a major event, like a terrorist attack, could change everything. 

Or...the economy can spiral downward and mass layoffs begin.

Or...gas at the pump could go to $1.50, the Dems would say that if the GOP were elected, prices would soar again.  They could be believed.

Or...biology could intervene.  President William Henry Harrison died on his 32nd day in office.  So, we could inaugurate someone in January and have someone changing the drapes in February.

It's early, it's early, and very exciting.

February 11,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 10,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

OUT – Carly Fiorina and Chris Christie have dropped out of the Republican race, which is entirely logical.  They're both good people, and there'd been high hopes for Christie at one time.  But neither made much progress with the voters.  Between them they may have had, oh, about 7%, and I have no idea where those votes will go.  I would hope that Dr. Ben Carson would also decide to leave, rather than embarrass himself further.  He's a fine man in the wrong role.  John Kasich got a boost from New Hampshire, but I doubt if his good fortune will repeat itself in South Carolina, a week from Saturday.  He, too, might depart.  The serious field is Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and, to a degree, Jeb Bush.

MIKE? – Speculation grows that Mike Bloomberg might enter the race.  No fundraisers needed, as he's a multi-billionaire.  He is meeting with pollster Frank Luntz.  I've read that some preliminary polls taken put Bloomberg, who is barely known outside New York City, at about 10%.  But he could flood the airways with ads, and could probably boost his share quickly to 20%, which is what Ross Perot got in 1992.  Don't underestimate Bloomberg's potential to shake up the race.  He provides a dignified, rational alternative to the tumult we're seeing.

HILLARY'S LAST STAND? – The Dems vote in South Carolina on the 27th, a week after the Republicans vote in the state.  Many are saying that if Hillary can't stop Sanders in South Carolina, she's lost the race and might as well get out.  South Carolina, with its large minority population, is made for Hillary.  But Hillary has run an awful campaign, and her concession speech in New Hampshire made matters worse.  She came off as a hack, trying to pacify every group she could remember to name.  No vision, no spirit.  No style.  And she still has an FBI probe over her head.   At the same time, Bernie Sanders, like the leftist Barack Obama before him, is not under any serious press scrutiny.  He's the media's next dream – a real socialist in the White House.  The inaugural ball will be held on a union picket line somewhere in the rust belt.

February 10, 2016       Permalink

YIKES! – CLINTON IN DISTRESS – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:   Analysis of the New Hampshire vote shows the full extent of the Clinton disaster.  From The New York Times: 

Senator Bernie Sanders beat Hillary Clinton among nearly every demographic group in the Democratic New Hampshire primary, according to exit polls.

He carried majorities of both men and women. He won among those with and without college degrees. He won among gun owners and non-gun owners. He beat Mrs. Clinton among previous primary voters and those participating for the first time. And he ran ahead among both moderates and liberals.

Even so, there were a few silver linings for Mrs. Clinton. While Mr. Sanders bested her among all age groups younger than 45, the two candidates polled evenly among voters aged 45 to 64. And Mrs. Clinton won the support of voters 65 and older. And, though Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every income group, she did carry voters in families earning over $200,000 per year.

COMMENT:  But, as we have said, wait 'til South Carolina, on February 27th.  Clinton must act quickly to get her campaign back on track, if it ever was on track in the first place.  She must stop trotting out ancient history like Madeleine Albright and Gloria Steinem, queen of the sixties. 

She must take on Bernie's quack socialism.  If she can't, in South Carolina, beat a guy who honeymooned in the Soviet Union, she's history.  (I can just imagine Bernie's bride saying, "Oh Comrade Bernie, I can't wait to make love in the Gulag.")  This election has some very weird stuff.

February 10,  2016     Permalink

LET HIM STAY THERE – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  Iran continues to poke a stick in our eye, despite the nuclear deal.   And now an American villain will help the Iranians celebrate their growing power.  From Fox: 

Louis Farrakhan, the controversial leader of the Nation of Islam, is set to speak Thursday at a rally in Iran for one of its new drones, Iranian media report.

The planned ceremony marks 37 years after Iran's Islamic Revolution, in which Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized control from the Shah, who had gone into exile.

Both Farrahkan and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani will speak, Iran's Tasnim News Agency reports. The homegrown drone will go on display along with a ballistic missile and a satellite carrier, organizer Asghar Abkhezr said.

Farrakhan and Rouhani met for dinner as recently as 2013, in New York City.

Critics have long condemned Farrakhan, 82, for his inflammatory statements about Jews, Catholics, gays and Asians.

COMMENT:  I wonder if the White House will condemn Farrakhan's presence.  Or the Iranian ceremony.  Or anything else done in Tehran.  Obama, who now almost seems a distant figure, wants to make Iran the centerpiece of his Mideast policy, replacing our traditional allies.  It is a fool's errand, done by a fool.

We've said that any of the presidential candidates would be better than Obama on national security.  That is no longer the case.  Bernie Sanders would be worse.  More honest, perhaps, but worse.

February 10, 2016       Permalink

BACK TO THE REAL WORLD – AT 8:10 A.M. ET:  There's a world outside New Hampshire, and it's very dangerous.  From UPI:

WASHINGTON, Feb. 9 (UPI) -- In testimony before Congress on Tuesday, National Intelligence Director James Clapper said the Islamic State will likely attempt an attack on U.S. soil this year and that North Korea has restarted a plutonium reactor.

Clapper said the Islamic State has been infiltrating migrant groups posed as refugees fleeing from Iraq and Syria in efforts to spread across borders. He warned the foremost terrorist threat to the United States is the Islamic State and its eight branches, including Boko Haram, which changed its name to the Islamic State West Africa Province after formally pledging allegiance in 2015.

During a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, Clapper delivered his annual testimony of assessments by intelligence agencies, where he said the Islamic State was "taking advantage of the torrent of migrants to insert operatives into that flow," adding that that IS is "pretty skilled at phony passports so they can travel ostensibly as legitimate travelers."

The Islamic State "will probably attempt to conduct additional attacks in Europe, and attempt to direct attacks on the U.S. homeland in 2016," Clapper said, also warning that al-Qaida affiliates "are positioned to make gains in 2016" -- specifically Yemen's al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula and Syria's al-Nusra Front.

Lt. Gen. Vincent Stewart, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, said it was unlikely the Iraqi city of Mosul would be liberated from Islamic State control in 2016.

COMMENT:  Lots of happy talk, right?  I trust Clapper's report won't interfere with the socialist fantasy world of Bernie Sanders, or the legacy-protecting fadeout of Barack Obama.

I hope we don't have a terrorist attack.  But if we do, it might well have a profound effect on our presidential election.   Would ISIS understand that?  I'm not sure they would.

February 10,  2016     Permalink